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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 414.48

+0.7%

Jan 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: THE ANT who wrote (116447)	2/18/2016 4:47:19 PM
From: TobagoJack	5 Recommendations Recommended By 3bar bart13 dsv John Pitera sixty2nds Read Replies (2) of 219231

macro report just in by person known to me and for whom i have respect for whatever his opinions, and so i pay attention, even when he points out the obvious guidance to consider, getgold, for the in-de-flation in the pipe, and de-in-flation still to be quote Our continued discussions within the economic trenches confirm that the economy is bottoming and that recovery should start in March. These views are supported by the monetary leading indicators. Both M1 and M2 grew rapidly in the second half of last year. Now the NDRC has just announced the approval and financing of 21 projects to the value of $8.3bn mostly related to energy and transport. There are also rumours of a new stimulus plan to be announced in March. Not only is the leadership introducing counter-cyclical measures but, perhaps, is positioning the economy for a deep global recession starting in 2017. Strong loan demand experienced in January has continued into February with small banks reporting better loan demand mainly arising from mortgage lending. Perhaps a rebound in real estate sales across the country is more imminent than is being generally recognised. Most reports on China focus on the country’s rising debt and potential for a financial meltdown. These analysts mostly ignore the huge annual savings amounting to over 50% of GDP ($5 trillion plus) and bank deposits of over $21 trillion. The PBOC governor made it quite clear in an interview over the weekend that a devaluation was not on the cards and that foreign exchange policy will focus on a basket of currencies (the trade weighted index). ... ... There are two comments worth making. First China is in the midst of restructuring its industry sector. Companies are failing often below the radar screen because most are in the SME sector. Others continue to be propped up for the time being because if too many were allowed to fail at once the impact on the economy would be disastrous. We know from our discussions that banks are taking a harder line with many companies not only in the SME sector. For instance, China’s largest copper tube company was forced to accept a bid from a smaller company because the banks and local governments would no longer support it: they had run out of credit. More failures which will include the steel industry are on their way over the next three years. Second, China’s leadership may know more about the global financial sector’s difficulties than most of us – they are exiting their USTS and other American debt at a rapid rate. It is quite possible that they are preparing counter-cyclical measures in the event of a deep recession in the global economy with severe financial consequences. unquote

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