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Technology Stocks : Information Architects (IARC): E-Commerce & EIP

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To: Jeffrey S. Mitchell who wrote (3836)	12/27/1997 6:07:00 PM
From: ZOID	Read Replies (2) of 10786

Jeff: If would kindly respond to an issue I raised a week or so ago regarding revenue ranges that were projected for the 4thQ97 and 1stq98 I maintained that in ALYD managements haste to reassure investors about the missed 3rdQ breakeven, they put forth additional information that may ultimately engineer disappointment. R.O. was quick to jump on my junior analytical status failing to sean the "mean"ing of the ranges as an expectation of $7MM for the fourth quarter and $14MM for the 1st quarter. By publishing those ranges ALYD has given the street two numbers that they will remember: $8MM for 4QTr and $18MM for 1stqtr98. A mid-range proftiabilty announcment will not drive ALYD dramitcally higher. Wall Street rewards upside earnings surprises. ALYD needs to come in at $10 million for 4q97 and $20MM 1q98 to have any upside surprise based on their ranges. If they are infact targeting $7MM and $14MM for the respective quarters their range projection should have been released as $4-6 and $8-10 for the two quarters. Then $7 and $14 would have been an Upside surprise and not a mid-range snoozer release. And as B.O. should know as a senior analyst, packaging is just as important as product. Would like to hear your thoughts as this is more crucial than Reg D offerings. It is crucial 1998 begins a major ramp up in earnings for ALYD. Together with CPWR this can happen. $50MM and $100 MM in reves for 1998 and 1999 must be doubled or trippled if ALYD is going to soar or sour. That's the only thing fundamentally that is going to move the stock(with y2k crisis reporting helping as well) The only way they can achieve this kind of revenue is with CPWR. I don't hear anyone talking candidly about moonshot anymore? The tone on the thread has moved to ALYD as long term (3yr-5yr?) growth play. I think the market has given a dose of reality to everyone who thought the last two spikes above $30 were easy pickings and that ALYD was a near term bargain at $20. We are entering into the millenium equivalent of the two minute warning Jan 1, 1998, is ALYD ready to play or punt? There is no room for errors in estimates or execution. KEA and ADP have other sources of revenue and are not a pure y2k play like ALYD. Thus, ALYD has to execute bigger, better and faster than those co's to be taken seriously as a viable long term company. They may win migration and translation business as a result of their y2k efforts but its not a part of their revenue stream for the next few years. PS Vias put out a piddly contract announcment for $1.5mill. Never the less there was a dollar figure announced. I will again resubmit that this will be the next required "de riguer" piece of information necessary to have a high profile announcement. Real dollar=real revenues=high stock price. Excuses about corporate skullduggery and law suits are not being accepted as reasons for secrecy. The FASB is requiring companies to report their spending on Y2k. It doesn't matter when they release the information, investors will find it. Either in press releases or 10Q's. Best Regards,

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