I saw that but thanks for linking it here. That is one thing I have been questioning - how do these metrics differ in bears vs. bulls. In all but severe bear mkts, these can be used to look for bottoms and turns. I would posit that with almost every single day having 100 point Dow moves, honestly a small number anyway, the extreme volatility is scaring folks.
I had a series of posts on one of the biotech trading threads...momo....which you can find by looking at my posts. It would appear to be there are lots of interesting quick hitter bio trades opening up....some where fundies meet very ST technicals. Most if the stocks are in bad shape technically longer term. These are 1-5 week trades only.
BTW many think the stock rally SHOULD be over (many unfortunately to say want system to crash and speed imperative because they hate govt). BUT the raw facts are this rally has lasted a whopping 5 days from the low of the move. 5 days. Was it violent? Yes for all of three days. Was the magnitude huge? NO. Do the magnitude and amount of time match up historically? Partially no and partially it depends as if we are in early innings of the BIG COLLAPSE, this move probably sufficient and we can can keep crashing now but if this is a normal garden variety correction, then clearly from article linked by James, no new buyers have been sucked in and oscillators are still oversold, some even ST. I think we have 2-5 weeks left. I see setups justifying that BUT those setups could be for collapses too - the signal says big mive coming and you have to use experience and signals to guide you and for countertrend calls, that is hard, and often wrong.
BTW if I am right and this correction is largely over or if it sticks to minor bear territory, stocks will still be extremely over-valued relative to historical metrics beyond current year trailing and forward PEs - kind if interesting in a world with no growth and maybe a New Normal in a new permanent zero growth/zero interest world. I fear the global upheaval of technological changes dooms us. The Luddites may be about to have their broken clock moment of being right. Where are the new jobs? I saw an article indicating AI may eventually take up to half of all jobs. What then? Science fiction often shows utopian worlds where everyone has plenty. It seems to me the world is becoming more dystopian instead, the other great sci fi thriller!
I am going to have a series of three rants/commentaries coming up in next few days posted here but also sent on to appropriate sites.....one on severe self interest and lack of regulation destroying the financial mkts; one on the fact it is the 1% not the 47% that has captured the reigns of govt, often times manipulating that other group - yeah 1% has always captured things, but never to extent as now where income and wealth and more importantly, raw power disparities have never been so severe; one on the witch hunts against the drug industry potentially shutting down one of the holy trinities of US global value creation - are they justified on pure morals - maybe, will they make us feel good ST - yes, will they fix things - no (too small a part of bigger problem), do they threaten US hegemony in this area - yes, is the system broken - yes.
Jon |
