Interesting! It may turn out you're right.
My take is a bit different. I believe contrary to the pundits and talking heads, Cruz and Rubio are largely splitting up the conservative vote. They both are young, Senators, Conservatives, Hispanic and christian. Yes, Rubio blew it on Immigration, but I think a portion of conservatives are giving him a pass on that, under the assumption he learned his lesson and will follow the "build the wall" model. They also see him as better looking and able to articulate conservative optimism. Notice they way christianity has become part of every speech lately.
Therefore, Bush dropping out will split the voters for all three Rubio, Trump and Cruz, with a slightly larger share going to Rubio. That leaves Kasich and Carson voters. Besides the Northeast, I don't think Kasich has much support, what support he does have will be divided in a similar fashion as Bush. That leaves Carson supporters who will mostly go to Cruz and Trump.
So, my final analysis is unless Cruz or Rubio get out, the nomination is Trump's. 40/30/30 or thereabouts. I hope I'm wrong and Cruz surprises on the upside. |
