<whether they have to give access to CLECs or not is a moot point for
the RBOCs. if they want to stay in business period they have no choice but to go ahead.>
I would agree that eventually the RBOCs (and CLECs) will be more actively involved in ADSL rollouts. But I would completely disagree that the time frame and logistics of any larger scale rollout would be independent of CLEC access requirements for the digital network equipment.
<..as for dataquest being the king of the industry....give me a break....>
Well, (you CLAIM) you're just a kid, so OK <g>.
Fwiw, Dataquest has long been widely considered one of the most highly respected independent international research groups.
A very rough gauge of the breadth and depth of their reputation might be how often they were referenced, relative to others, on CMP in 1997:
Dataquest: 909
In-Stat: 164
Telechoice: 101
Forward Concepts: 64
<..telechoice says 3.5mm lines, lets go with them...>
Sure, we could do that.
Let's use the optimistic Telechoice "vendor referenced" suggestion of 3.5MM xDSL lines by 2000. How many of these will be ADSL? Let's say a generous 3MM. How many of these will be Westell (vs. Alcatel and all other vendors, including new entrants by then)? Let's assume an also generous 25%. Most optimistic and generous case then, would mean ~750K total WSTL modems deployed by 2000.
<.. dataquest has been too wrong, on too many things for too long for us to even consider using them...>
I'm sure you must have many specific examples to back this broadside up with?
I will add, that in addition to the telco uncertainty of WHICH 25-40% of the lines in the local loop have the problems of taps and interfering inductance coils, the problem of crosstalk, especially in lines older than 5 years old, will be another reason that ADSL will be slow to be large scale deployed.
Regards-
Steve |
