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Strategies & Market Trends : General market lab and commentary
SPY 679.68+0.7%Nov 26 4:00 PM EST
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From: Robohogs2/24/2016 1:37:21 AM
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Ugly out there - Is rally over or resting? True answer: no one knows. A couple of disturbing trends:

  1. SPX rejected at top of W and at 50 day and then whoosh down. Now some are calling Armageddon as it was the third lower high on intraday basis. I personally see the highest close of the 3 highs. Who knows??
  2. Risk off measures all showing: JPY, VIX, put/call, SKEW at extremes most of last week - usually low is bullish but not yet again (did help trigger rally).
  3. XBI. ENOUGH SAID.
  4. Banks horrid.
  5. Cleveland fed stress index not good. clevelandfed.org
  6. Median CPI at 2.9% as of Jan. Stagflation?

The good:

  1. New highs outpaced new lows on NYSE.
  2. 20 day on SPY near 190 - needs to hold.
  3. US dollar overall will become helpful soon.
  4. PUT/call and skew are supportive here. CBOE put/call low of 1.11 to 1.19. ISE call/put equity only below 100% first time since 2/11.
  5. NYMO no longer overbought.
  6. JNK closed near HOD.
  7. TRIN at 1.89 highly suggests up day.
  8. FASTMONEY CONSENSUS : short SPX and go long GLD. Fade them?

Gun to head and with bears laughing again, I think the rally is still not yet done. We need to hold 190 SPY for me to think like this. SKEW, put/call and TRIN signal to me any bounce could have oomph as folks not positioned. Futures are well below fair value as of 1:39 am NYC time however. Despite this, WED should be up. Also, seeing lots of bearish articles again. BUT historical analogies (not studies as data limited) have been highly suggestive of longer term gains recently - 2 90% up days, 3 1+% days, 2 days gappung above previous days highs, etc. EDIT - ES futures were down 4, 6 below fair value when I started post. They were at fair value when done. Now slightly below.



I did see something interesting where someone compared one of the Fed talking heads to thinking bubble at 2100 and help us at 18/1900. Bullard I think.

Jon
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