>>IMHO LGND has comparable prospects to SEPR; greater prospects than VRTX; is ahead of MLNM in product delivery and therefore is comparatively undervalued to these companies. CNTO is 2 to 3 years ahead of LGND in markertable products and gives insight in how LGND may be valued 3 years from, ie, 2265M market cap for LGND would translate to a price of $51. Would be interested in your thoughts and others on the above.<<
Great post Joe. Most of us on the thread agree that LGND is undervalued. I think the comparison in regard to LGND being around where CNTO is in 2 or 3 years is especially apt. Right now the primary difference that I see between VRTX and SEPR and LGND is that VRTX and SEPR have products that are finished (or very close to finished) with P3 trials AND address large markets (AIDS and asthma) while LGND's products in P3 address rather small markets. I think that is why the market gives them a higher valuation. When LGND has good P3s for some of the larger markets, like lung and prostate cancer and psoriasis, etc., it will climb a lot higher. Right now the market is not giving LGND much value for its diabetes potential.
In terms of its prospects, it looks to me like LGND's pipeline gives it the best prospects of any of the abvoe companies, BUT it will take a good bit of time and money for those prospects to be developed, and in the meantime, the stock price may fail to reflect that potential. However, once we have the P3s on Targretin as well as Panretin, and it becomes clear that both will pass FDA, the market may become convinced LGND will have good success with the rest of its pipeline. I expect that once Targretin has completed P3 for CTCL, investors will begin to start factoring in the diabetes potential to the stock price.
I agree that fair value for LGND is around 20, higher if one has good foresight. Unfortunately the market is not always fair. (:>) |
