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Strategies & Market Trends : General market lab and commentary
SPY 679.68+0.7%Nov 26 4:00 PM EST

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From: Robohogs2/29/2016 9:29:00 PM
   of 668
 
Reasons to be long

  1. HYG/JNK much better
  2. Oil staying up even if stocks got schmeissed
  3. Put/call supportive
  4. Sentiment supportive? Still this week?
  5. Retail still short
  6. Economy ok - services worse but ok, consumer is spending AND saving, mfg better than was


Concerns/short reasons
  1. Overbought
  2. Trend line/50 day MA rejections
  3. Trannies stalled
  4. Gold soaring
  5. Lots of smart guys selling here
  6. Economy weakening - services, surveys on confidence, new home sales

March 1

  • Looks like gaps down
  • Saw a study that in mkts below 200 day, buying gap downs is correct 2 out of 3 times.
  • Various charts have support near /ES 1920 - very ST charts

Jon

PS. I screwed up hedging short in AMZN taking 1k gain to flat. I also added to IBB - 500 impact. I also shorted but hedged VRX - 500 min gain likely but gave up 1-2k hedging. Hedged gold - small loss on hedge. Kinda hedged GOOGL short but not really. A minor blip. Amazon only real mistake as VRX was new and selling put call on 1 to 3 ratio to call spreads made sense to smooth returns. IBB had me biased long. Gold looks overbought - should have added tranche sold back though with the hedge. GOOGL - can limit impact to few hundred bucks. Stupid trade. Overall, less hedged if we crash but GOOGL still good, vix stuff ok, iBB bad, VRX no real impact, gold less oostive impact. I may sell put spreads to collar out short diagonals in gold.
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