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Strategies & Market Trends : General market lab and commentary

SPY 679.70

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From: Robohogs	3/4/2016 7:39:15 AM
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Indicators and comments: AAII bull bears did not move very much. Still rampant pessimism. Everyone's faves treading water while energy and materials and industrials and transports ramp. I cannot remember ever being this overbought. Nymo ladt had three days above 90 in Jan 09. Let's hope past is not prologue. One instance not enough comparison. Even with indexes red early yday, adv/decline was positive. That is what is driving nymo. Some of advance is extreme low quality - does this mean 2009 scenario? Breadth is very strong acroos board though. HY roaring higher. Short treasuries long hy was the trade. In hindsight, easy trade. Bios will not come back this year in all probability. Trump and Clinto going to keep pressure. Economy looking relatively strong. March hike prob off table given surprise it might cause. April/May? Put/calls stretched but not uber extreme. Bullish percentage indicator I have showed should be in topping process. Not much more room to go. Vix futures vs. cash nice contango but vix curve very flat from month 1 out. Skew moving higher. Risk on due soon. Check out gold - wow! One site I follow has one trader buying puts in AAL - very cheap statistically while another sells puts in Delta. Huh? Helene Meisler's moving avg of momentum just hit highest level since 2012. On one hand overbought extreme as mentioned. On other, much better dynamics. BUT the 2012 level had SPX pull back TEN percent before coming back. McClellan Summation Index has not been this high since about 10 days after the March 2009 Low. VWAP YTD near 2001 futures or 2005 cash. Cash 200 day near 2020.

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