I read Albert Edwards' interview in Barrons yesterday before i posted my question to you. Mr Edwards sounds like someone from Joe Grandville's camp. I read everthing in Barrons with caution, keeping in mind the self interest and perspective of the source.
The intro to the interview reads "An Interview With Albert Edwards ~ Many a lesser man has been permanently scarred by the experience, but not Albert. We're referring here to the several-year stint, fresh from the university, that Dresdner Kleinwort Benson's global strategist put in as an economist with the Bank of England. But the observation also describes Albert's not-so-near escape from the stir he created among some of his firm's sovereign clients, back in '95, when he called the "Asian miracle" nonsense. The firm scrambled to keep its brokerage licenses in the then-booming region, and Albert reined in his prose, but didn't alter his position. (He also, wisely, left traveling to the Far East to others while the politicians fumed.)"
However, there are others who are warning of an earnings shortfall in 1998. The question that i have is what will causel the earnings shortfall in United States equities? I note that Albert Edwards, in his interview, doesn't elaborate on this detail. The point in my previous post to you was, given the tendency of companies to preannounce, and blame forces they cannot control for earnings dissapointments (like retailers blaming the weather) why do you think that the asian effect is not already priced in?
I would be interested in what you think will cause the shortfall in earnings for U.S. equities!
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