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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market

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To: tekgk who wrote (12432)	12/28/1997 3:13:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) of 18056

Tek, at the risk of boring every one, the 1930 secular bear market was caused by a collapse of demand (due in my opinion to the failure of the Government to use the printing press judiciously, and this I believe is a quote from Milton Friedman). The 1966 to 1982 secular bear market was due in part to inflation (including the oil shock, stagflation and excess taxation) and I believe excessive spending (which was required) in national defense. Right now I fail to see either a collapse in demand (we have the welfare state to thank for that) nor major inflationary pressures (we have a far east imported deflation to thank for that). So, after adjustments for over capacity, I see resumption of the goldilock scenario. Zeev

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