Why The Post's "Trump Could Win New York" is Fantasy Clickbait
March 5, 2016
Daniel Greenfield
However you feel about Trump, New York is a liberal place. It's the place that elected Hillary Clinton in the first place. In a general election, Republicans will concentrate their resources on winnable states. So the New York Post piece that went viral, like previous Post pieces on the same topic, is fantasy clickbait.
It relies on "confidential polling data" and anonymous quotes. Its only set of actual poll numbers comes at the very end.
A publicly disclosed Siena College poll of Long Island voters last week found Trump narrowly beating Clinton among Long Island voters, 41 percent to 38 percent, while he was crushing his two nearest GOP primary opponents, Marco Rubio and John Kasich, by 37 percentage points each.
That's true. Of course Long Island is mostly white, well off and somewhat conservative. Trump being ahead of Hillary there is significant, especially since Obama won Suffolk in '12, by a narrow margin, but looking at the Siena College poll of the whole state earlier showed Trump losing to Hillary by 57 to 32 and to Bernie Sanders 63 to 30. Most of the rest of the Republican field does better against Hillary Clinton, but still loses.
Because... New York is a very liberal state.
Trump has an unfavorable rating of 71 percent. Now maybe the numbers have shifted over February and New Yorkers now like Trump and hate Hillary more. That's what the Post article is implying, but it's not very realistic and there are no actual numbers behind it. And even in the Siena poll cited by the Post, majorities still dislike Trump. In Suffolk though, it's a narrow majority. Even Bernie Sanders gets a slightly more favorable rating in Suffolk than Trump does.
These are still nice numbers in Suffolk for Trump, in a place that Bush almost won. In a state that Bush lost by 18 percent. And that Democrats have been winning by wider margins since.
Long Island is 77 percent white. New York State is 18% Hispanic, 16% black and 56% white... and dropping.
Even juggling voter turnout rates without Obama on the ticket, winning New York is unrealistic. For anybody.
http://www.frontpagemag.com/point/262053/why-posts-trump-could-win-new-york-fantasy-daniel-greenfield |
