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Strategies & Market Trends : Dino's Bar & Grill

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To: Goose94 who wrote (15280)3/8/2016 10:43:41 AM
From: Goose94Read Replies (2) of 203353
 
Are Natural Gas Prices Finally Finding a Bottom?

When markets turn around, whether it’s on the way up or down, it’s usually because it found a level on the chart that stops the momentum. In August 1998, nat gas hit a swing low of $1.62. That level is good support on a long-term chart. April nat gas futures on March 4 and again on March 7 traded lows of $1.611 and $1.612. That may turn out to be a double bottom. The market is also seriously oversold.

I understand all the bearish fundamentals that drove prices down to these levels: record supplies, slack demand and warm weather. This is the market doing its job.

I see a shift coming. I know that when supplies get too big and prices get too low, production will slow down or even stop. Natural gas producers can afford to do that, because unlike crude oil producers, they are not competing for market share with the rest of the world. We are getting closer to finding ways to liquefy and export nat gas. I also know when prices get too low, savvy investors and traders recognize good long-term strategies. They know prices will move to higher levels over time. Low prices attract demand. So, now we are also seeing a shift in demand from electricity generators, away from coal and into natural gas.

This is a good longer-term opportunity in natural gas. There is limited downside at these levels versus upside potential. It’s not a question of “if” prices will move higher but “when”. Call me to discuss strategies that are suitable for your risk tolerance. Always practice good risk management when trading commodity futures.

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