I think that the Y2K thing will actually be beneficial if it results (as it must in some cases) in a lot of superannuated computer code being junked. Everything will run better.
I was not joking, though, about the possibility of a Y2K hysteria that serves as one of the puncturing agents for the stock market bubble. It is certainly spreading like old-fashioned measles through SI threads. So far it's getting reasoned discussion on network television, I gather, but it's just the kind of thing (like the devil-worship symbols found on the old Proctor and Gamble logo) to appeal to a huge following. I was wondering what kinds of nuttiness the numeralogy of the year 2000 was going to inspire, and maybe this is one of them.
Now I will sit back and wait to see if this thread is Y2K-proof or not.
Meantime, I am learning a lot from the book on Emerging Markets by Burton Malkiel and J. P. Mei. Having never gone into foreign stocks except for precious metals and oil, this is a new area for me, but it may be the place to be after the recent collapses. One thing that bothers me is that closed end funds claiming to be invested in China turn out to be largely in Hong Kong stocks. I can't help worrying about Hong Kong for several different reasons. There appear to be some remarkable values: the Asia Tigers (GRR) fund down 33.8% for the year and selling at a discount of 18.6%, and Schroeder Asian (SHF) down 35.1% and at a discount of 7.9%, for example. And Templeton Dragon, a Hong kong/China fund, down 27.2% and selling for 19.7% less than NAV.
Any thoughts on these? |
