| | | Keep in mind patients on briga will stay on drug more than twice as long as crizotinib and more than 30-50% longer than 2nd gen drugs (PFS and DoR), in other words crizotinib's ~$500M would be $1B if briga had been 1st to market. I'm modeling briga at 25-35% of both 1L and 2L market, which would yield $600M peak, however, factoring in time on drug vs. other agents will push briga's revenues over $900M. I agree on the $50M for 2017. When briga's PFS curves separate significantly from criz, and they will, the head-to-head trial will be stopped early, potentially a Q3 '18 event.
Briga is a slightly better ROS1 inhibitor than crizotinib, and with a better safety profile. However, for only 3,000 patients worldwide and with PF-06463922 already showing better (ROS1) efficacy in the clinic this is one Ariad can't afford to pursue. Maybe a couple hundred patients off-label for the criz-intolerant. |
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