John Pitera's Market Laboratory Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: John Pitera who wrote (17906)	3/15/2016 6:39:08 AM
From: John Pitera	1 Recommendation Recommended By The Ox of 33421

CAD short trade...The June CME globex trade has already moved to .7467 and thus I'm moving the stop to .7551 to keep the trade from going negative.... I've looked at it a trade with around a 5 to one upside.... The spot USD/CAD is at 1.3389 up .97% on Bloomberg for today,,, so moving the spot stop on the long USD/CAD to 1.3248 to keep it from going negative... I was working with a trading colleauge and I was looking to do this position on Friday afternoon... and wish that I had as it would have probably diffused Iso's concerns about posting live time trades... which I do here on occasion. The CAD interbank spot and the inverse CAD futures look had increadible one way moves off of the lows in early FEB and had come all the way back to it's 200 DMA... and professional traders fade/ sell that type of very strong one way rally..... also the CAD was moving in one direction due to Crude moving in one direction higher..... that trade was feeling streched and overly euphoric by the time last week ended.... Just like the SPX had felt streched as it spent all day Friday right below ti's 200 DMA and closed at 2222. just over the 2119 200 dma. I was expecting the market to not power through that on Monday morning.... Reflecting on the CAD.. I've been watching market set up like that live time since 1984.... and the psychology was definitely stretched . The market is pricing in a June Fed rate increase as of last friday afternoon.... and thus I have been expecting the USD to rally a bit this week against the emerging market currencies especially the commodity currencies like the AUD and CAD. We've been taking another look at the globex CME for currencies since the banks with the best platforms for retail have been exiting the retail currency trading business... Cititbank sold their business last year...and my very favorite bank Deutsche bank that had the best currency trading platform exited the business back in 2012 or 2013.... and FXCM came close to going belly up in Jan of 2015... They needed a $300 million cash infusion. The CME does have counterparties... looking at the above chart I could believe that the CAD could pull back to it's 50 DMA.... will be watching.... and the major weekly trend is still down..... John

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