Roger's 1997 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks

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To: Michael who wrote (8960)	12/28/1997 10:34:00 PM
From: Brad Davies	Read Replies (1) of 9285

Michael, each of these shorts will be profitable in 98 in my view. I am not sure which will be the best short since that depends on which one tanks the fastest. As is the case with most shorts, they can be kept at elevated levels for long periods of time if the float is tight enough and the MM's are intent on manipulating the market. I did not include ZITL and DDIM on my list because others have mentioned them. I believe they are excellent shorts as well. IAIC and INFD and PNDA each fall into the same category. Companies that are running out of cash and have no real business to justify their market caps. PNDA has already had a large fall and I am less optimistic about it as a short. IAIC and INFD should be penny stocks and they are trading at 13 and 11 respectively. The small trading volume makes them dangerous, but they should be under 5 within 6 months. AVNT has also been discussed at length here and on the AVNT thread. The noose is tightening on this co. and I believe it will be under 10 or better by the end of Jan. HMSC is a co with no revenues but a "patented" method of detecting breast cancer. The patent will expire in May. They have never generated any revenue and will not likely do so before their patent expires. I expect the stock to fall significantly within the first few months of the year. CIC is a Toronto listed stock. It is trading at 40 (Cdn). The company had a whopping 250K (Cdn) in revenue last quarter. They have a encryption technology. I am not an expert in this area and would appreciate comment from someone who fully understands it. Nevertheless I do know they have competition and the competition is getting most of the business. This company gets it's credibility from the fact that Motorola has a significant shareholding position and has licenced the technology for some of their uses. It's stock price is predicated on the belief that if Motorola bought in it must have something. So far the company does not have sales to support their stock value. The problem here is that they have 50M in the bank and very little trading volume. May have to wait a while to pick the entry point here. If anyone has any thoughts about these shorts I would appreciate the feedback. Regards Ron

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