I believe everyone knows when the FOBE eRICO is babbling. No science, no data just BE.
In the USHCN data there is no change in Tmax or Tmin from the 1800s throught today.
Searching for Warming in USHCN Data
Guest Blogger / 1 day ago March 16, 2016
Guest essay by Leland Park
Before Climate Science, basic physics differentiated between the terms heat and temperature because they are related – but do not have the same meaning. The classic heat equation, from physics provides the principal relationship. Accordingly, the relationship between the heat content of a substance and changes in its temperature is given by:
Q = m * c * ?T
where m is the mass and c is the heat capacity of the substance being measured
From the USHCN we have a record of near-surface temperature readings from the 1800s to the present day. The “monthly” versions of USHCN data are composed of yearly station records containing both monthly and annual averages. These records can be used to construct year to year incremental temperature changes for each USHCN station. The function displayed in Figure 1 is a composite network averages of the incremental changes in Tmax (annual average high temperature). The number of actively reporting stations varies, but reaches about 1100 in the 1930 to 1940 period.
 Figure 1 USHCN Average Year to Year Changes in Unadjusted Tmax
Several observations can be made based on Figure 1
- No unambiguous warming trend is evident in the unadjusted Tmax records
- Heat change is cyclic between warming and cooling phases.
- Tmax change is well-behaved throughout the USHCN history, despite significant local differences among the many USHCN stations.
- Complex dynamics are evident in the pattern of heat changes..
Q = m * c * ?Tmax = m * c * [0] = 0
Energy Balance
Interestingly, the same analysis on Tmin data tells us a lot about the energy balance over time. That is because Tmin, (the daily low temperatures) represents the point at which the nightly cooling ceases and daily warming resumes. The temperature change analysis for Tmin is presented in Figure 3:
 Figure 3. Average Tmin Year to Year Changes for the USHCN
As with Figure 1, there is no unambiguous trend of warming or cooling in the Tmin change function. This is further confirmed by the histogram of the data in Figure 4:
 Figure 4. Histogram of Year to Year Changes in Tmin
Absence of a warming or cooling trend for annual Tmin is, again, given by the heat equation:
Q = m * c * ?Tmin = m * c * [0] = 0
Whatever heating takes place during the daily and seasonal warming cycles is being fully dissipated by the corresponding daily and seasonal cooling cycles. Otherwise there would be a heat change trend in Tmin data. Bear in mind that all of the figures are based on annual average values so seasonal effects are subsumed in the analysis.. |
