Steve,
<Kiplinger's Personal Finance Mag., annual forcast issue, has a snippet on pg. 80. Ed Yardeni mentioning there is a 35% chance the millenium bug will make the economy ill ...... The snippet is very light hearted about the Y2K issue.
I'm flabbergasted that Kiplinger treated this in a light hearted manner!! Ed Yardeni takes this VERY, VERY seriously.
YEAR 2000 RECESSION?
"PREPARE FOR THE WORST. HOPE FOR THE BEST." by Ed Yardeni
The Year 2000 Problem (Y2K) is a very serious threat to the US economy. Indeed, it is bound to disrupt the entire global economy. If the disruptions are significant and widespread, then a global recession is possible. Such a worldwide recession could last at least 12 months starting in January 2000, and it could be as severe as the 1973-74 global recession. That severe downturn was caused by the OPEC oil crisis, which is a useful analogy for thinking about the potential economic consequences of Y2K. Just as oil is a vital resource for our global economy, so is information. If the supply of information is disrupted, many economic activities will be impaired, if not entirely halted.
The goal of this book is to assess the likelihood of a year 2000 recession. In July 1997, I concluded that the probability of at least a mild global recession in 2000 is around 30% [NEW ERA RECESSION? Deflation, Irrational Exuberance, and Y2K]. Now, I believe the odds are 40% based on numerous unsettling documents, most of them posted on the Internet and discussed in this book. I will continue to review and analyze the latest relevant documents in my Y2K Reporter and to incorporate my findings and conclusions in this book.
yardeni.com
[CK HOUSTON SIDEBAR:] I've heard, in private "off the record" conversation, Yardeni's assessment is far higher than 40%.
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Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network: CENTER FOR CYBERECONOMICS
yardeni.com
Cheryl |
