C-Cube Message Board - Msg: 3051750

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Technology Stocks : C-Cube

CUBE 36.28

0.0%

Nov 24 3:59 PM EST

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To: Rarebird who wrote (27165)	12/29/1997 10:20:00 AM
From: Helios	Read Replies (1) of 50808

Rarebird, I think your analysis of the Asian crises is 180 degrees off. The Asian tigers have been pushing a business model that was successful for Japan over a 40 year span. Market share at any cost - undercut everyone because profits will come later. What you have been describing as what the Asian countries are going to do, is in fact what they have been doing and failing at. In this environment it is the American companies that have been succeeding. The reason that the Japanese model is not working is simply that their are too many players. China primarily is responsible for making the strategy untenable. The reason that the Americans have been succeeding is their emphasis R&D, cost cutting and frankly we have learned a lot from the Japanese and their business practices such as advanced inventory and quality control. How will the Asia handle this crises? I imagine that each country will handle it differently but I believe that they have gotten the message. The IMF bailout could be their last chance to reform their system and they will not be able to incur more debt to build more factories just to drive down prices and gain market share. While they work this out, the technological revolution marches on and Asia may not be able to keep pace. American technology stocks will benefit over the mid term creating new markets with new innovations and technologies. Are we in a bear market? I think we are in one but I can't say how bad it will get. I expect though that when it ends, stocks will come roaring back. That's what usually happens at the end of a bear market and market timers that smugly tell you of how they got out just in time forget to tell you that missed the bulk of the rebound because they thought that it was a `fake out rally'.

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