Maybe. But consider this phrase...
There are 34 seats up in 2016, of which 24 are held by Republicans. Democrats will need to gain 4 or 5 seats to take control.
Do the math. That is 24 Republican seats vs. 10 Democratic seats. In general, that makes the Republicans more vulnerable. But, the Democrats do control the White House and the party that controls the White House tends to have a tougher time in both the Senate and the House. All things being equal, it makes the Senate a toss up. This is what the historical trends have been.
But, all things are not equal. For one, if Trump is at the top of the ticket, that is likely to suppress Republican voter turn out. He has a lot of negatives, even with Republicans. Especially women, but also men. He is also loathed by 2/3rds of independents, who otherwise might help make up that deficit. Not to mention every other group that isn't white and male. For another, Republicans control a lot of state houses. In several states, like Kansas, Wisconsin and Louisiana, they have wrecked their respective state economies with Republican economic policies. By November, Oklahoma and Mississippi might be in similar dire straits because they have adopted similar measures. In other states, the Republicans promised to be all about the local economy, but have spent much of their time on social issues. As a result, Republican governors and Republican state legislators are less than popular right now. In fact, all of the lowest ranking governors and state legislatures are Republican. How that will effect the national election is not known. There really isn't a historical model for this degree of dissatisfaction with state governments. People tend to be less critical about them because usually state governments are more involved with state issues and not national party politics.
But, who knows? The voter suppression laws very well may screw up the national elections like they have the primaries enough to give Republicans the edge they wanted when the laws were passed. |
