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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 265.39

+4.2%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Big Bucks who wrote (13898)	12/29/1997 1:38:00 PM
From: davesd	Read Replies (1) of 70976

BB..I am still of the belief that overcapacity is the real problem....the financial crisis was just the first half of the storm...we may be in the eye of the storm at this point...so to speak. If anything..the financial crisis is going to reduce the carnage that we would have seen if the asians continued to build fabs. I was reading in an article that MU die size is .30sq mm for a 16M chip....and the asians is about 50sq mm. This is due to good engineering and not because MU has the hottest and greatest tools. MU went from 8% market share to about 15% without any significant tool purchases. Soon or later the asians will have to do the same. This will reduce the cap spending yet increase bit output. INTC's earnings/cap spending in mid Jan will set the tone for the industry...LRCX and NVLS's earnings will also shed some light on the industry before AMAT reports in FEB. dave

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