Value Investing Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Micah Lance who wrote (57088)	4/4/2016 3:19:19 PM
From: Graham Osborn	Read Replies (1) of 78659

Jurgis can attest to the fact that many value investors (myself included) have been too early in the energy sector. Commodity cycles last 18 years average and we are only a few years into a bear market. It is way too early on a sector rotation basis. For banks we are probably even earlier. There are still too many assets on the balance sheets of large banks that were not addressed in 08-09. This could be even more problematic if the Fed should attempt to liquidate its huge portfolio of MBS, which would re-freeze a large part of the market, rather than monetizing it. You are not unusual in trying to figure out a sector rotation strategy to the investing conundrum when value is hard to find. If you pursue this theme, my recommendation is to view the cycles in a longer term way. Think of tech as the first wave (late 90s bull). Think of energy/ basic materials/ EM/ industrials as the second wave (mid 2000s bull). Think of healthcare/ CDs/ CSs as the third wave (mid 2010s bull). Technically the last phase should be services and utilities. Certainly the dividend stocks are still pretty pumped up right now. I'd lump the 3rd and 4th wave into the 2010s although there is some phase separability.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next