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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market

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To: Raj who wrote (12502)	12/29/1997 2:26:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) of 18056

satellite.nikkei.co.jp All these are interesting, but note especially the drastic decline in individual stock holders in Japan--almost the mirror image of what has happened in the same period in the United States. Perhaps when the Nikkei finally puts in a bottom these investors will gradually come back in--or it may be like Americans in the period 1935-1945, so many of whom were so discouraged with the market that they did not really begin to come back in large numbers until the 1960s, just in time to send the Dow to a secular top. Thinking over these things also reminds me of how both in the mid-thirties and again in 1972 there was a strong rebound rally--really, a short bull market--followed by renewed decline. In Japan, if the psychology is comparable, we may be in the second big leg down of this protracted bear market. Someone on the Asia thread put me onto the Morgan Stanley Asia Fund, APF, which sells at about an 18% discount and is about 40% into Japanese stocks. I am also looking at GRR, Asian Tigers, which does not include Japan and sells at an 18.6% discount from NAV. Should the US market decline by 25% I may switch out of BEARX and into these funds instead of cash. The long side is ultimately the place to be in common stocks. Of course in North Korea starts a war all bets are off for a while. Critiques of these notions invited! Would especially appreciate hearing from Joseph G.

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