You should be happy about your results... I'm just guessing but you have exposure to the energy sector (perhaps not major, but not insignificant either), including MLPs, E&Ps... they have been absolutely hammered since mid 2014, but the ones I seem to recall that you hold (assuming you still do) are not going to go out of business, nor are they likely to cut dividends/distributions, so while they've been down as much as 50% or more, you've been racking up many many more shares in reinvestment (assuming you've been reinvesting those divvies) than you would have otherwise... this energy bust will pass... should see indications of major trend reversal beginning 2nd half of this year, IMO (with perhaps a couple more false starts in between), and by 2018 we could easily see major price shocks as the capex required simply to maintain production has been slashed... it takes time to ramp that stuff back up, such that when the data clearly shows we're headed for supply shortages, it will take time to re-start production, and prices will climb... my wag is $50 oil by Jan., and $80 or higher in 2018...
Now, if the above had happened as little as 6 months ago, we'd see a lot of onshore light tight oil production ramped up quickly to meet any perceived supply shortfalls... however, we are now seeing that there is a "shortage" of money available to lend/spend on the capex and opex needed to do this, so with every month, with every new asset in the ground sale, with every new BK in the sector, with every new borrowing base reset, etc., it becomes more and more difficult to react quickly enough to stave off looming supply imbalances -- remember that oil consumption has been climbing not falling during this bust and it is important to calculate what level of capex is necessary just to keep production flat, replacing depletion in the ground, let alone increase production and never mind exploration/discovery of potential new sources to replace old, depleted ones...
I suspect that once energy begins to recover, you will see your comparison to the benchmarks you use will resume its top spot... hang in there... |
