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Strategies & Market Trends : General market lab and commentary

SPY 659.00

+1.0%

Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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From: Robohogs	4/9/2016 12:35:01 AM
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Mkt had an inside week this week vs last. Last two times it happened, it went up the next week and then crashed in January and it just went down. Small caps look weak, breadth is weakening and indices were off. Risk indicators: Nymo near bottom of chart. It can persist but I think we are 3-10 days from low based on oscillators. Low late this week is my expectation but no one knows. Twitter and messaging seem to inducate tons if bearishness. Not just give some back bearishness. But 1500. 1700. 1800. Next week type bearishness. And mkt has not yet hit ANY longer term daily MAs. NONE. It has yet to break a major trend line. It HAS put in a very ST double top. One commentator I follow thinks we trading range since everyone has such extreme expectations. Breadth not awful just weakening. Just over 60% down this week. Not too bad for down 1%. Nazz slightly better than NYSE but NYSE much better Friday as Nazz was very weak vs. NYSE (oil vs bio thing?). Skew giving a strong buy signal. Lowest level in over a year. While commentary may be for huge move, NO ONE positioning at tails. This is confirmatory signal not contrarian as market makers and pros key factors in tail pricing. They do not get this one wrong. It can swing quickly but no evidence in last few weeks. Put call measures blahhhh. Not too high nor too low. Between long term MAs. Gold saying risk off Yen not usable - trend move. Signalling issues or just interest rate differentials? Other mkts signalling issues. Nikkei and Dax scary. I am seeing calls for down Monday. I think the late move back up AND the skew say higher. If we had closed at the lows, then Asia would play catch up and then Europe and down we would go. We may still get some of that but we closed not much weaker than midday. Also, the undercut of SPY to red right before close says market makers tried to flush stops. I think higher Monday. On bios, sentiment frothed up more quickly than I expected. 6% days do that I guess. On daily, I am seeing 271 as first fib support followed by 266-267 from fibqueen. MAs near 268 and just below current level. Breakout from wedge was 268/269. The low today got near top of W (270-272 depending on whom you ask), so logic tells me 290/300 may be next (fib targets). Breadth actually better than price in bios today imho. Recent history has my gut saying lower. Whether we formally go test 268-271 or today was enough, who knows? I do not want so see 266/267 break and prefer to hold 271. 256-57 and 263 are other key fib supports though.

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