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Rumors are rumors and soon APPLE will officially confirm they are transitioning to OLED (via media or IFIXIT) and when they do the OLED industry will enter the tornado growth. More importantly Universal Display Corporation stock price will experience it's largest ever gain because everyone will jump in. That momentum will continue for years to come until OLED reaches the assimilation phase. In the mean time expect other companies to sign agreements with UDC. Remember without phosphorescent there are no OLED displays.
IH
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High-Technology Adoption Life Cycle - For discontinuous high-technology products, the technology adoption life cycle differs from the previous version, and six different types of consumer profiles will emerge:
The six groups for the high-technology model are:
Early Market Consumers - either technology enthusiasts or new technology sponsors making large investments to develop future commercial opportunities.
Chasm - nobody is sure how much market penetration will ultimately be achieved. Therefore, the visionaries and the pragmatists watch the technology, while the established players throw up entry barriers to discourage new competitors.
Bowling Alley - Market penetration phase when various niche market applications for the new technology start to emerge, and companies start to gain a competitive advantage by adopting the new technology in some departments.
Tornado - a hypergrowth stage when companies suddenly start rushing to adopt the new technology, causing severe shortages in supply. Market growth in this phase is at least 100% per year and more often 300% per annum or more. The key parameter in this stage is market share and the key discipline is engineering.
Main Street - following three or so years of Tornado strength growth, industry standards are now established and supply rises to meet demand over the longer term. The focus turns to specific applications, and the key parameter becomes margins rather than market share. The key discipline now becomes marketing.
Assimilation - represents the end of the technology adoption cycle. The product is now established, and will now generate the bulk of its revenues and profits as economies of scale come into play and the technology becomes embedded in mass consumer products and so on. |
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