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Biotech / Medical : momo-T/FIF

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To: tuck who wrote (10658)	4/17/2016 11:37:59 PM
From: Robohogs	Read Replies (2) of 12215

I noticed tons of solars really not doing well recently. Very recently. Even as oil went up. I think earnings will be key. Earnings growth trough WILL be Q1. Question is guidance. Weak GDP. Mediocre to good consumer. Weaker $. Weak intl. Higher commodities (good for commodity guys/bad for mfg?). Overall guidance is key item within earnings. And mkt rally anticipating good guidance I assume. Also, I just posted that opex may have pulled forward some seasonality. Very early this year. Mkt hanging in well here so far - my hedges go deeper! I knew I should have shorted USO puts. Oil barely reacting - I know people who expected $5 not 5%. My view is mkt supply imbalance minor here but with Iran increasing offsetting collapse in US - I will say it again, shale conomics are and were a ponzi depending on over-estimates of producable oil undercutting COGS. One year of demand growth fixes that. NIKKEI dying on earthquake as lower oil should actually help them. Of course it SHOULD help US too but mkt doesn't see it like that. Lower oil will kill the strong adv decline line too which I would argue has been driven by commodity plays, energy and Miners first and foremost.

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