.... It looks like Mr. Trump has realized that he has lost the race for the GOP nomination, at least according to rules in place since October 1. It’s looking like too far a reach to win enough bound delegates before Cleveland. After insulting everyone, he is unlikely to be able to woo any unbound delegates.
Mr. Cruz, meanwhile, is likely to wind up in a close-enough second place to provide an anti-Establishment alternative acceptable to delegates representing alienated GOP primary voters and caucus-goers. Currently, Mr. Trump leads Senator Cruz by fewer than 200 bound delegates.
[ I understand if you counted unbound but committed delegates, Trump's lead is only about 70. ]
The billionaire needs about 485 more bound delegates, or 70% of the approximately 700 in remaining contests, an unlikely achievement for a candidate who has never won more than 50% of the vote anywhere. With 310 bound delegates at stake on the final day, June 7, he can’t win beforehand. So, Mr. Trump’s charges of “unfairness” seem designed to hedge his bet and explain away his likely defeat.
Mr. Trump, meantime, is favored in the mostly northeastern contests still in April. Let’s say he wins three-quarters, or about 160 bound delegates, including on Tuesday at New York, where three delegates are awarded in each congressional district (proportionately if no one tops 50% of the votes, winner-takes-all if one does).
In May his dance card is not so inviting. Two hundred bound delegates are at stake in five contests. Let’s say Mr. Trump wins half. An AP analysis predicts only 70 for Trump.
Even in such a favorable scenario, Mr. Trump would still need to win about 225 bound delegates on Judgment Day — June 7 — with only about 250 still available at California, New Mexico, and New Jersey. Mr. Cruz is expected to take Montana and South Dakota that day.
In California, some 159 delegates are at stake in separate simultaneous winner-takes-all contests in each of California’s 53 congressional districts. That’s favorable for Senator Cruz’s celebrated ground operation – and a nightmare for Mr. Trump’s team, which according to The Hill, failed even to offer a full slate of delegates at yesterday’s Wyoming convention.
The Trump crew fielded just six for 14 slots in the Equality State (it’s motto is Equal Rights). It seems that Mr. Trump forgot the adage that you can’t win football games with only half a team on the turf.
Unless Donald Trump wins outright, he will face a month-long pre-convention game of wooing uncommitted delegates. If he were to come close, he’d be able to cut deals. Otherwise, it is over — save for an independent general election bid.
Which may be why, when CNN’s Anderson Cooper asked him recently whether he would honor his pledge to the GOP, Mr. Trump said “No. I don’t anymore.”
http://www.nysun.com/national/trump-may-soon-discover-independent-campaign-is/89543/ |
