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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 143.23-2.9%Nov 18 3:59 PM EST
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To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (4186)12/29/1997 7:35:00 PM
From: Aaron Zuckerman  Read Replies (3) of 10921
 
Jay,
Here's a link to an article I noticed on News.com about reduced capital equipment spending by Japanese semiconductor co's www.news.com/News/Item/0,4,17668,00.html. I'm new to the thread and to SI and bashfully admit I don't know how to post a link so that another reader can double click right on it. I just copied and pasted the location from Netscape into this email.

The crux of the debate seems to be whether a patient investor can get in at better prices than the current ones. It's hard to resist current prices compared to where they were last summer, yet market forces may indeed drive them even lower. The fact that Japanese semiconductor co's are cutting back on investment seems to support your view that overcapacity will continue to cut into revenues and hence equipment spending. Other more cautious, or should I say bearish members of this thread have also suggested the possibility of worldwide recession during '98 will also bring stock prices down further. It does seem unlikely that the dramatic upward surge in semi-equipment stocks of this past summer will be quickly repeated.

I appreciate your sobering and knowledgeable posts.

AZ
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