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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions?
MRVC 9.975-0.1%Aug 15 5:00 PM EST

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To: Seth Leyton who wrote (6627)12/29/1997 8:25:00 PM
From: WBendus  Read Replies (1) of 42804
 
Seth,
I no longer own any MRVC shares. I sold my shares back when MRVC was flirting with $30 on the upside, just before it broke to $38+ a share. I do think that Asia is a bigger problem than it is being led to be but I also do not think that it is an insurmountable problem.

The situation in Asia is recieving considerable attention and I think that the situation will clear, much like the Mexican currency and economic situtation cleared. But unfortunately for MRVC and other technology companies, the next few quarters will likely experience trouble as a result of the current situation in that region. Once confidence is regained and the currencies stablize, the situation should improve for US technology companies that were betting heavily on that region.

My emphasis would therefore be on a strong summer rally in the techs as the earnings and revenue climate will likely improve by December of '99. The fear for MRVC is that there will be considerably more competition for them by that time in gigbit gear and the emphasis will be stronger on companies that can provide the end-to-end solution.

Things to watch for in this industry for the next few quarters will be; slowing revenues from increased impact of Asia, increasing inventories, sliding margins and the most critical thing to watch for I think will be Days Sales in Receivables. Will these Asian customers be able to meet there obligation in the face of all the short term solvency issues they are facing? Right now all the focus seems to be on the banks and governments that are defaulting on loans but will they be forced to default on their payments for networking gear?

Wayde.
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