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Strategies & Market Trends : General market lab and commentary
SPY 683.310.0%Nov 12 4:00 PM EST
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From: Robohogs4/25/2016 12:41:08 AM
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fat-pitch.blogspot.hk

I will leave you guys with this. He has been absent for a few weeks and this one is pretty good. The conclusion? Uptrend ongoing but will have difficulty as in very strong resistance area. Vix structure argues for ST weakness though trend still up. Sentiment remains weak.

By most accounts, the uptrend from the February low continues to be strong. SPY has gained in 8 of the past 10 weeks. It has also gained in 7 of the past 9 days.
Advances as strong as the current one are relatively rare. The S&P has made a "higher low" every week since mid-February. Since 1954 (62 years), this has happened only 13 other times. What happened next? In every case, the S&P had a higher weekly close within the next 2 months. At the end of 2 months, 85% of these cases closed higher.
Since mid-February, SPY and NDX have both gained 16%. Leading the upside, however, has been emerging markets, which are up 25%.

I will test the middle bubble early in the week. I have no easy way to do it - database best but will use inelegant counter formulas with sorting to ID the cases and tease out returns. The first data run I will make though is testing cases where BTK up about 10% or more from 20 trading days ago and at 20 day highs. My guess is lots of 2000-2003 chop on forward returns. I assume there will be 10-15-20 cases - may compare to SPX positioning to see if any exact similarities - new recent highs in SPX but BTK struggling though rallying.


I think looking at IBB historically probably best use of studies but looking at all index changes has me psyched out. Plus I have data in 3 files at moment. Ugghh.
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