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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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Bonefish
To: Wharf Rat who wrote (931870)4/25/2016 2:21:12 PM
From: Brumar891 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 1574895
 
Hiding The Decline In Missouri .. TOBS Unnecessary
Posted on April 24, 2016 by stevengoddard

One of the primary excuses used by NOAA to hide the decline in the US temperature record, is Time Of Observation Bias (TOBS.) The theory is that people used to be incredibly stupid and reset their max/min thermometers only once per day – in the afternoon. This would cause double counting of some high temperatures, and result in historical temperatures which were too high.

This theory is easy to test. Half of the stations in Missouri took their min/max readings during July 1936 in the afternoon, and the other half took them at morning or night during that month. I separated those groups out and found that it makes no difference to summer temperature trends.

The group of morning/night stations has been cooling at almost exactly the rate as the group of all stations. Also note that summer temperatures in the 1930’s are essentially identical in the two groups. No matter what tricks NOAA uses to hide the decline in US temperatures, it doesn’t change the facts.



Morning/night stations.

                                                                   APPLETON CITY           MO  USC00230204 CLINTON                 MO  USC00231711 FARMINGTON              MO  USC00232809 JEFFERSON CITY WTP      MO  USC00234271  LAMAR 2W                MO  USC00234705 LEBANON 2W              MO  USC00234825 LEES SUMMIT REED WR     MO  USC00234850 LEXINGTON 3E            MO  USC00234904 MEXICO                  MO  USC00235541 MOBERLY                 MO  USC00235671 MTN GROVE 2 N           MO  USC00235834 SPICKARD 7 W            MO  USC00237963 UNIONVILLE              MO  USC00238523
Afternoon stations

BOWLING GREEN 1 E       MO  USC00230856 BRUNSWICK               MO  USC00231037 CARUTHERSVILLE          MO  USC00231364 CONCEPTION              MO  USC00231822 DONIPHAN                MO  USC00232289 LOCKWOOD                MO  USC00235027 MARBLE HILL             MO  USC00235253 NEOSHO                  MO  USC00235976 ROLLA MISSOURI S T      MO  USC00237263 STEFFENVILLE            MO  USC00238051 SWEET SPRINGS           MO  USC00238223 TRUMAN DAM   RSVR       MO  USC00238466 WARRENTON 1 N           MO  USC00238725


Another important test is the percentage of days over 100 degrees, comparing morning and afternoon stations. The result of this interesting – the morning/night stations actually have a higher frequency of hot days than the afternoon stations. This is the opposite of what TOBS theory would predict, and most likely due to the fact that the morning stations are generally further southwest than the afternoon stations.



There is no indication that TOBS has a serious biasing effect, and no indication that the NOAA adjustments being done are legitimate

https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2016/04/24/hiding-the-decline-in-missouri/
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