Thanks for keeping us up to date with the I.R. non-response ( what's new? ) in regards to Sandoz.
I have also been keeping up with the discussion between James and yourself, and would like to add my opinion to certain aspects of it.
You are correct to point out that Vitaros Launches, Vitaros U.S. rights in-license and quarter over quarter growth have not provided a sustained pps growth in the past.
One thing I would like to point out is. Where has the Market Cap been when these events transpired? I can most certainly tell you that it was no where near the levels it is now. My point is that there is a lot of room for the Market Cap to grow as these events transpire.
Let me first take us to the Biggest POSITIVE event in company's recent history and then I will review different events.
Vitaros U.S. rights in-license. September 10, 2015.
September 09, 2015 pps of $1.70. Market Cap $85,700,000
September 10, 2015 pps of $1.83. Market Cap $92,250,000
Vitaros FRANCE launch. May 28, 2015.
May 27, 2015 pps of $1.62. Market Cap $81,655,000
May 28, 2015 pps of $1.64. Market Cap $82,663,000
Vitaros Spain launch. May 06, 2015.
May 05, 2015 pps of $1.56. Market Cap $78,646,000
May 06, 2015 pps of $1.61. Market Cap $81,167,000
Vitaros Italy launch. September 01, 2015.
August 31, 2015 pps of $1.70. Market Cap $85,704,000
September 01, 2015 pps of $1.78. Market Cap $89,737,000
Vitaros U.K. launch. June 16, 2014. ( note this was prior to Fispemifene in-license ).
June 13, 2014 pps of $2.34. Market Cap $89,160,000
June 15, 2014 pps of $2.36. Market Cap $89,920,000
Vitaros Germany launch. August 18, 2014 ( note this was prior to Fispemifene in-license ).
August 15, 2014 pps of $1.96. Market Cap $77,454,000
August 18, 2014 pps of $1.96. Market Cap $77,454,000
Note: In order to obtain the then current Market Cap - I reverted to the then current outstanding shares and multiplied by the then current share price.
As illustrated above, Apricus' market cap has fluctuated between $77M - $92M, at the time the above mentioned events have transpired.
Current Market Cap ( as of yesterday's close ): 33,670,000
That is HALF the market cap at the LOWEST point in the range of where our Market Cap has historically been before Positive events.
Another thing I want to point out is that the Market Cap range had been similar throughout recent history ( 2014 - 2015 ). More importantly, the Market Cap had been similar during Vitaros related events both before and after the Fispemifene in-license, during the above timeframe.
We are now Half the Market Cap. We were punished for the Fispemifene failure by 50%, in regards to the lowest point of the range above ( note that $77M was also the market cap the day prior to the Positive event in 2014).
Based on my view of the value of Vitaros and the historical Market Cap value of the company ( with or without Fispemifene ), it is my opinion that the Market Cap has huge potential to grow and sustain value as positive events transpire from this point in Market Cap Value.
In the meantime, we will see if the larger shareholders can get the the share price occasionally above a buck to avoid the delisting drama, as MI suggests.
As far as the possible Delisting event that we can face because of the Nadaq rule of minimum $1 bid price. I believe we will receive the first notice around May 06, 2015 - May 10, 2015. The company will have to make this notice public. I am sure they will touch on the subject during the 1Q 2016 conference call ( as the nasdaq notice should happen right before or around the same time the conference call will be held ).
That notice will give the company 180 days to have the share price close at or above $1 for 10 days straight. That means that the company would have to achieve this prior to November 06ish 2016. ( note that it is possible for this date to be after the possible NDA acceptance for review by the FDA for Vitaros - it all depends when they file the NDA and if the FDA deems it complete for review ).
If the company fails to achieve the minimum $1 bid for 10 days straight ( by November 06, 2016 ). The company is allowed to request another 180 day period to comply with the requirement. It will have to demonstrate how they plan to achieve this ( mergers, acquisitions, reverse split, etc ). The company would have another 6 months from November 06, 2016 to meet the $1 requirement. This means that the important date - in regards to Nasdaq compliance - would be May 06, 2017. The company will have to be over $1 by then if not it will REVERSE SPLIT prior to this date.
In my opinion, we will not face Delisting nor Bankruptcy ( as another person shared with us ). Worst case scenario would be reverse split sometime in April 2017. |
