You're absolutely right, GZ. That would be a very unfortunate outcome. Some of disparity may be explained by the uncertainty surrounding what will happen during and after the Republican Party's convention, as well as the disposition of commie Bernie's disaffected voters, and how the supporters of Cruz and Kasich respond to Trump's nomination. Plus, as Trump often says, he hasn't even begun to campaign against Hillary yet. Much will change when he does, especially when the mud and dirt begin to fly.
Another important point is that considering Rodham-Clinton's chronic poor state of health, she could suffer a complete physical and/or emotional collapse at any time, and I'm not saying that to be smug or funny. I'm very serious. She often looks like she is just barely hanging on physically, mentally, and emotionally, and she appears very near the verge of breaking down.
With all of that aside, I'm trying to remain positive, but realistic, regarding Trump's chances, but you're absolutely right -- the current general election betting is not favorable for the Republican Party or Trump. [1] The popular vote market in the IEM currently indicates a 59% probability of a Democrat winning the most popular votes in the general election, whereas the WTA market in the IEM currently indicates a 72% probability of a Democrat winning the highest percentage of votes.
Similarly, the PredictIt markets indicate that Hillary has a 66% chance of winning the general election, while Trump has a 35% chance. [2]
It is important for everyone to remember that future events can easily (and suddenly) change these relatively-early betting patterns.
1. iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu
2. predictit.org |
