Top 10 1998 predictions by IDC...
1. The Web will edge toward 100 million users while Web commerce exceeds $20 billion.
2. The Web will finally reach "mass-market" proportions in the United States, with nearly 25% of households online.
3. Information appliances and suppliers will invade, challenging PC unit volumes in three to five years.
4. PC suppliers will aim for consumers with $500-700 PCs and appliances; the business-centric PC model will die.
5. Intel will launch a major non-Pentium chip business targeted at
appliances.
6. Microsoft will win the DOJ battle and create a new non-Windows appliance platform.
7. The era of megabit consumer Internet access will begin (goodbye, ISDN) as telcos' DSL challenges cable companies
8. ISPs' power will grow as IT customers tip the scales in some key IT market battles.
9. Key Internet technologies for 1998 will include digital certificates, thin software, Web sound, and language translation.
10. The scramble for unclaimed customer mindshare will drive mega-mergers in 1998.
IDC Predictions '98: New Power Brokers Reshape the IT Industry
idc.com
Of direct relevance to this board are #3 and #4...
3. Information appliances and suppliers will invade, challenging PC unit volumes in three to five years.
Implications: First, PC suppliers, chip suppliers (notably Intel), peripherals suppliers, and software suppliers must establish a position in the appliances space or risk marginalization. Second,these suppliers must adapt business models to support much higher- volume sales and lower unit costs. Third, Windows will struggle to maintain its current position as the de facto standard client platform as more appliance-centric operating systems (including, but not limited to, Java OS) compete in this space....
[note: WebTV Plus -- the $199-299 settop box with a 1.1 GB SEG drive -- is selling out. This is part-marketing (i.e., set up volume ramp by restricting initial supply) and part-pent-up demand for alternative ways to access the net. Gus]
4. PC suppliers will aim for consumers with $500-700 PCs and appliances; the business-centric PC model will die.
Sub-$1,000 PCs drove U.S. household penetration of PCs to the 45% level, but that's not good enough. As originally forecast at the IDC Directions conference '98 last March, in order to get penetration to the 60-80% level, the PC industry must drive prices down to the $500- 700 range. We predict the first-tier PC suppliers will achieve these price points within the next 18 months. For PC suppliers to do less will stifle growth in the key growth segment: the home.
As suggested in Prediction #3, we also believe that the long-term survivors in the PC business will establish a stronger presence in key categories of information appliances.
Implication: The consumer is now replacing the business user as the center of the PC universe. Suppliers that withdraw from the consumer PC segment or cannot establish top-tier share in consumer PCs will effectively no longer be in the PC business three years from now.... |
