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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.
AAPL 259.35+0.1%Jan 9 9:30 AM EST
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To: slacker711 who wrote (189959)4/28/2016 12:44:45 PM
From: pyslent2 Recommendations

Recommended By
JP Sullivan
MGV

  Read Replies (2) of 213182
 
The bear case at these valuation levels depends on iPhone owners beginning to switch away from the iOS ecosystem. One data point from Cook could kill that thesis. Give some details on the percentage of the installed base switching AWAY from the iPhone.

It's getting harder to believe that Cook would warn the Street if he saw anything worrisome, but he did cite Kantar data as evidence of iPhone loyalty. Yes, the data is US only, but the statement that "iPhone users are incredibly loyal" is meant to apply globally. Take it with a grain of salt given Cook's tendency towards optimism.

For me, as long as new-to-iPhone customers are at or near record levels, I think iPhone sales should be healthy going forward. We just need to recalibrate expectations for a lower average upgrade rate going forward. It's unfortunate that the upgrade rate numbers that Cook cited all last year were meant to highlight how many more iPhone users were left to upgrade, but they also could have showed how extraordinarily fast users were upgrading to the 6. Some context would have helped make that point and properly set expectations for 2016.
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