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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.
AAPL 259.06-0.5%3:59 PM EST
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To: slacker711 who wrote (190071)4/28/2016 7:43:52 PM
From: pyslent1 Recommendation

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Bill from Wisconsin

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Everything points to the company preparing for record 6S sales followed by an incremental upgrade for the 7/7S. They didnt see this coming which makes it harder to trust the implications of their commentary on the upgrade rate for the 6S vs. the 5S.


Yes, it should have been obvious that 6S upgrades would be slow after the first quarter. Whereas 13% of iPhone users upgraded to the 6 series after one quarter, only 8% of that 2014 installed base upgraded to the 6S at launch. Add in the miniscule number of the "new to iPhone" pool that would have upgraded to the 6S after a year or less, and we are talking about a blended userbase wide upgrade rate south of 7% fo the 6S (nearly half the comparable figure for the original 6's).

Apple's decisive reduction in component orders in January and follow through in March makes it clear they had concluded (rightly) that the upgrade component of iPhone sales were tracking significantly behind their original expectations and specifically, behind the iPhone 6 cycle. It should have been made clear that it wasn't only going to the be March quarter that was affected by this slowdown. Instead we got a "trough" comment. Horrible.
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