|
Vintho, I've taken another look at Cube's chart. This is my interpretation on a purely technical basis. But first a little history: Cube began its ascent during the second quarter of 95. In less than a year Cube went from about $10 to the low 70's and peaked in February 96. Since February 96 Cube has been in a vicious bear market where it has basically given up most of these gains and all rallies have been of the bear market variety, which means there have been lower highs. As you know, I called the Bear Market rally this summer while I was long. One has to go back to the third quarter of 95 in order to try to understand where there might be some support for Cube. I see some support for Cube at the $14 level. I call it support because it was a resistance level on the way up. I don't know how strong the support will be here. But I do think a pause in the decline may occur at this level and Cube may bounce. Whether Cube can form a base there and hold is an entirely different question. I tend to think it won't. One thing is for sure here: Cube is trading at this point with NO SUPPORT, Technically speaking. The $14 level does appear to be a weaker level of support than the $17 level Cube broke decisively today. If the $14 level does not hold, there is some greater support down around $11. The technical significance of today's break is not to be underestimated: Cube has offically broken down. Before Cubes Bear Market is over in the second quarter of 98, we will have come back to the lows during the second quarter of 95. A three year weekly chart of Cube is a sight to behold. You ask me, "what happens when we hit these lows"? I say alot can happen between now and then and I woudn't want to say just yet. It may flounder in the single digits for a while or we may get a nice rally. I would say, however, that Cube is in the final season of its Bear Market, which is the most severe and painful. A takeover is possible, but that is not a technical consideration here. |
