Vid, (and JessP) it’s good to see your post and I totally agree with your take. I hope that you will post more in light of some of the other more “expert” opinions. Also, Vid I would be interested in what you think about the following?
Let’s face it, there literally is no one that knows what is going to happen with any degree of accuracy. The people on these boards, (me included) are not in the know and for sure there is an agenda that has and will take some time to progress.
The following, I think can be agreed upon by a very high percentage of those following this company:
A buy out will take place either this year or next year. I write that because the longer that we go out, the more expensive the BO price will be thus more urgency to get it as low as possible.
The science has improved with a definite, definite bias toward optimism and things in the works. Many have posted their knowledge here with much appreciation yet the ultimate disposition of the company is fraught with multi layers of complexity and ultimately supply and demand.
Alex Denner is now in total control with both the BOD and management changes yet let it be known that his motivation is not to have a fiefdom or operate a company. He runs a hedge fund, is an activist investor and wants to maximize return. Period
A buy out price can be all over the place as it depends on timing, how much they want it and how much they are willing to pay (in multiples). AD knows what he is doing and will go for and wait for what he deems is the most he can get. I for one am so glad he is where he is and it’s the minnows (us) following the sharks (the hedge funds and institutions).
The shorts are still in control with over 30M shares and they need to find a way out of their positions without getting squeezed and maximizing their ROI. In delineating the above (BO and science), there is little sentiment that they are short at this time because they think the company will do worse. IMHO, at this point in time, they are stuck and battling to find a way out. Thus the fluctuations and their fighting like mad on a day to day basis to work the bid and ask continually. Last week is a great example.
The buy out company does not want Ariad as an operating entity but rather will discard the administrative, financial and extraneous components. They want the science and the means of producing further breakthroughs. It's all about the present value of the future (science, volume, profit, synergy, etc). Therefore, the upcoming earnings will have a very low impact on the BO price. Warning, if it (earnings) is not great, the pps may dip, albeit short term.
If we all agree that we are NOT in the know and can agree on most of the above, it might make for a better conversation and sharing of thoughts, ideas and projections. These thoughts are only that and as a result of my observations. I totally respect the opinions of others yet like you Vid, there are no “experts” as we are all in the same boat as stockholders and interested parties.
Those in the industry that are interested in acquiring Ariad, absolutely know the value to them of the long term gains that heretofore they haven’t wanted or been able to do (the science) in their own house.
For sure it will be an interesting journey in the next few months and I look forward to the pps breaking out and seeing upward progress however long that takes and the twists and turns along the way. IMHO. |
