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Strategies & Market Trends : General market lab and commentary

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From: Robohogs

5/9/2016 9:36:44 AM

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I thought I would compare this bio bear with the one from 2000/2002. I am probably comparing too few highs and lows from the 2000/2002 as there were several ST wiggles. I even excluded a few ST wiggles this time.

	2015/16		2000/03
	Days	%	Days	%
First Low	43	-16%	49	-47%
Next High	16	9%	130	63%
Next Low	12	-20%	215	-51%
Next High	91	18%	62	61%
Next Low	44	-29%	108	-37%
Next High	25	11%	66	39%
Next Low	10	-8%	73	-25%
Next High	36	17%	42	15%
Next Low	12	-10%	19	-15%
Next High			9	7%
Next Low			83	-46%
Next High			43	35%
Next Low			32	-20%
Next High			63	29%
Next Low			93	-17%
Next High			99	59%

So, this bear is running much more quickly but it is also materially shallower. In 2000, it appeared the first move down might have been only a correction is the mkt almost got back to highs over a very long rally. It then fell apart very slowly with lots of to'ing and fro'ing. The rallies and down moves were longer and sharper. I know it is not correct but I am using Friday as the latest low. It will change as more data comes in. But even the longer moves in this bear have materially smaller % moves.

Jon

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