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Strategies & Market Trends : General market lab and commentary

SPY 683.31

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Nov 12 4:00 PM EST

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To: Robohogs who wrote (406)	5/9/2016 10:14:29 AM
From: Robohogs	of 668

Now I understand the reason we are all so frayed and disappointed in this latest bear market. The 2008/2009 bear was a strange animal. EXTREME chop. EXTREME. But not EXTREME levels. The entire bear market was essentially over in 57 days. Yeah, it went on to hit lower lows a few times after that. Yeah, it had many +/- 5% up and down days (often 2-3 in row but changing directions each time). The 2008/2009 bear was also way less extreme than the broad market decline. This time it is way way way worse. Some figures: Drop 1 lasted 57 days and covered 29%. It chopped hard after that into the first overall bear low in November, with the ultimate bear low in early March. In that 150 days from first low to last low, ^NBI lost a grand total of another 8% over 150 days despite several daily moves equal to that very percentage, or nearly so. It then rallied a quick 15+% over 2 weeks and went sideways with nearly zero volatility for 3 months and then up we went. So high to low was 207 days. We hit that date on February 12 in this latest bear market. I am looking at data and reacting here. Oh my lord. Oh my lord. Seriously. Bingo. I was not looking for this (although it just crossed my mind as I saw that date)!! The low to date of this bear market using ^NBI was………..2/11/16. Even Friday we were a full 6% higher. And from that low we had a 27 day rally equating to 11%. Not 15% but close. And it took a few days but if memory serves it was chopping in area for a bit before topping on March 7. We then had a quick move to a higher low over 10 days. THEN a month+ long move to a materially higher high. And then lower over 2 weeks. We are still above the last low by 4%+. Honestly guys, this I was not expecting. I am not calling the low. I am not calling the rally. BUT if the low is in, using ultimate low in 2002/03 (not all the intermediate stuff) and the 2008/09 bear, we should chop sideways to higher over a few months, starting from probably early March. I have a graphical representation and that is what I see. Jon

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