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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.

AAPL 270.98

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3:59 PM EST

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To: Moonray who wrote (190392)	5/11/2016 10:51:58 AM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) of 213177

“Our installed base analysis reflects that the iPhone 6 was unusually well received,” Milunovich said, stating that 37 percent of the installed base entering FY15 is likely to have purchased a new iPhone. The impact of this is being felt in FY16, with a significantly lower upgrade rate of 25 percent expected. “Our base case for F17 is total iPhone unit growth of 4 percent to 217 million based on a 23 percent upgrade rate and a decline in new customers,” the analyst pointed out. The base case is actually more conservative than the numbers even suggest. The average age of an iPhone entering FY17 should be older than FY16 which would normally suggest an increase in the upgrade rate. I dont know what the floor is but a 23% upgrade rate means the average customer would upgrade once every 3 years and 4 months. Qualcomm's data on 3G/4G upgrade rates for developing markets have never been that low. They currently sit around 27% or so and developed markets are at 36%. A 23% upgrade rate might not be the low, but I think it has to be close. Slacker

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