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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 421.32-0.5%Jan 16 4:00 PM EST
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To: John Vosilla who wrote (119130)5/16/2016 8:16:37 AM
From: bart13  Read Replies (2) of 219458
 
My economic crystal ball still has more than a few storm clouds, like the recent .5% annualized GDP and poor productivity and of course the wild cards of MENA and Putin, but the biggies in my book are the global social confidence issues around Brexit, Hillary and Trump that have '60s hate, violence and riot rhymes and that could easily trigger a recession. The way it looks now to me is that a recession in the next 18 months or so wouldn't be a deep one, but just enough to rattle a bunch of elite and 1%er cages and get even more fascistic motors running so that they can "protect and serve", aka control and slap down various imagined dangers.

I'm still expecting a continuing jump in US inflation over the next 9-18 months, which should help support housing even in the mildly bubbly areas. Vancouver and the US NW should remain bellwethers. My CPPI (corrected BS BLS CPI) remains around the mid to high 4% range, with the raw BLS Services CPI in the 2.5%-2.8% range, health insurance NSA over 6%, car insurance NSA over 5% and water, sewer and trash SA remains in the high 3%/low 4% range. If taxes were included in the BLS calculation of CPI, inflation would be much higher (*duh*).
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