ALL, Article...Summary of Chip market going forward...
X86 players vie for position
December 30, 1997
Electronic Engineering Times via Individual Inc. : The coming year promises to be an exciting one for X86 microprocessor suppliers and customers. AMD, whose market share has been shrinking since the heyday of the 386, is poised to ship its most competitive products ever. Cyrix, now a division of National Semiconductor, won't have any dramatic new products until the second half, but its 6X86MX should move steadily up the performance curve and be joined by new products in the second half. IDT will be busy ramping its first processor in the first quarter and rolling out two new versions the rest of the year. And Intel won't be standing still.
AMD's K6 and Cyrix's 6X86MX compete effectively against Intel's Pentium/MMX today, and to a lesser degree, against the low end of the Pentium II line. IDT's C6 is limited to a lower performance level but is still an effective product for the highest-volume PCs. None of these chips match Pentium/MMX's performance for applications that make intensive use of floating-point or MMX operations, but given the steep discount at which these products sell, many users find this to be an acceptable trade-off.
Cyrix (with its partner IBM Microelectronics) outshipped AMD in the second half of this year. AMD has been handicapped, however, by repeated problems ramping up production. The company must get past these problems and complete its transition from 0.35-micron to 0.25-micron technology, but if all goes well, it should have the capacity for about 15 million processors next year-several times its 1997 shipments.
Cyrix also expects to have the capacity for about 15 million units in 1998, thanks to a 0.25-micron process coming on line at National's South Portland, Maine, plant, as well as plans to use Taiwanese foundries for some production. (Now that Cyrix's designs are protected by National's Intel patent license, it does not need IBM's protection.)
Each of Intel's X86 competitors has a good shot at making a significant market- share gain in 1998. Cyrix may match or beat AMD's unit shipments, but AMD is likely to produce much more revenue. Cyrix's average selling price (ASP) has been in the $70 range because the MediaGX is selling in high volume but at very low prices. AMD has achieved an ASP around $150. In 1998, if all goes well, AMD will continue to earn relatively high prices with clock-speed boosts, its 3- D instruction-set extensions and, in the second half of the year, a processor with on-chip L2 cache, while Cyrix's new products will lag by several months.
Of course, just having capacity isn't enough; you have to make products that customers want. Next month I'll lay out each vendor's product strategies and the dynamics of the Socket 7 vs. Slot 1 battle.
-Michael Slater (mslater@mdr.zd.com) is principal analyst at MDR (www.mdronline.com) and author of "Battle For The Desktop, an analysis of the x86 competition."
______________________________________________________________________
Regards, Michael |
