> I believe he (Denner) is holding his position and will be taking advantage of this situation - one way or another. Like participating in an offering held at these prices and then appointing a Director.<
I agree that he is holding his position...for two reasons. First, because he would get squat trying to unload 14M shares at these prices, and second, because he is betting (like the rest of us) on the outcome of the NDA review by the FDA. For perspective, Denner's position in Apricus is worth a little less than $6M. Sarissa was worth over $500M at its last filing. I do believe that Denner would participate in an offering but only to the extent that the raised cash would cover operating costs up to an FDA announcement. But when would the company need the money and how much?
The company has made it clear that the NDA will be submitted by the end of 3Q16, or let's say September 30. The FDA takes 60 days to review the NDA submittal for completeness, so let's say by November 30. So by the end of November we will know if there are major bumps in the FDA approval process.
If the FDA decides the review the NDA as submitted, its standard timeline to complete the review is within 10 months of the submittal, or 10 months from September 30...or July 31, 2017. I would not think Vitaros is eligible for a priority review, BUT the recent corporate presentation (page 13) states: "Six Month Review Expected." So clearly the company expects an approval on or about March 31, 2017.
How much cash will the company need to make it to March 31, 2017? The company had $6.9M on March 31, 2016. At a reduced burn rate of say $10M per year, the company would be short about $3M by March 31, 2017 with NO other revenues from any source. That is not a high bar to clear in terms of an offering, if one were necessary.
Maybe an offering to raise $3M-$5M could wait until the NDA submittal as Apricus likely has enough cash on hand to make it to September 30.
Those are my thoughts on a very cool May 22 in California's Central Valley. |
