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Strategies & Market Trends : General market lab and commentary

SPY 670.92

+0.1%

Nov 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: Robohogs who wrote (476)	6/4/2016 3:15:33 AM
From: Robohogs	of 668

I again implore anyone who finds any of this interesting to follow my twitter feed. I realize I am putting much more stuff there than here. I occasionally do put together longer thoughts and one off things here so some overlap, some stuff only here and some stuff there. Already this weekend, I have put up analysis of 3 week streaks on IBB and implications in week 4 (highly favorable). If up, we should get a 2% week. If down though, the opposite. Same analysis, same results for XBI 4 week streaks. Generally just above 2/3 chance of up next week across all cases. Similar percentages. I also put up analysis of 0.4 and 0.5 ARMS/TRIN and results. Highly positive XBI, mixed for IBB. One thing from yesterday. LPL Research had a piece on earnings recessions the other day. My one takeaway had nothing to do with that analysis but an observation I made about the stock downturns. First, they included only earnings driven drops (no 1987). Second, they included all drops (whether 3-4% or 50+). My observation: we have had 4 uber bear mkts in last 60 years. I just looked up longer data and the we have had 6 uber bears over 90 years (2008-2009 is one bear not two and 2000-2002 is one not two per my counts). So every 15 years. We have had TWO in the last 15 (or 3 breaking 2000-2002 apart). The other major sequences are 20s/30s (not in LPL data) or '70/75. So why is everyone looking for another 40-50+% crash? Statistically highly unlikely. And the mid teens loss we did have puts us in the middlish part of the range. thereformedbroker.com Jon

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