Jim, as you say, 6 million 1998 exported handsets from Korea is a lot more than the 1 million in 1997. That was no doubt an estimate from before the drop in the Won and the realignment of spending patterns, investment and a lot more in Korea. "It has recently doubled its staff in information-related sales in the United States, China, Brazil and Chile." = already done, before the crunching times.
Also, in sales estimates, sales people generally try to minimize expectations so that they can be seen to shine when forecasts are exceeded. The operations people are left gasping as sales demand exceeds production capacity which was based on lower forecast sales.
So 6 million might be grossly conservative. Just as 1997 handset sales have exceeded most forecasts except my wild-eyed guess at 10 million early in the year, which seems to be pretty close to the mark.
I reckon demand for cdmaOne handsets will take off in 1998. Worldwide 25 - 30 million sales is my guess. Koreans will sell maybe 10 - 15 million. Sony, Qualcomm, Nokia, Motorola, Philips and the many other handset licensees will heavily boost production or get product on sale at last. GSM/analog competitive position is declining compared with cdmaOne and the process will only accelerate.
Even Ericsson is putting its resources and hopes into CDMA. I suspect they might find it economic to buy a Korean manufacturer of cdmaOne or form a Qualcomm Personal Electronics equivalent with one of them and get into the cdmaOne market that way. Rather than buy a hugely expensive license directly from Qualcomm. Though there might be some licensing agreements attached to the Korean licenses which precludes that method. Their dream of B-CDMA-VW is likely to remain just that, but they could add to their portfolio a Korean cdmaOne licensee [they already have one in Orbitel] so that they can claim to cover all aspects of the wireless world.
Judging from the Qualcomm share price, and overall markets, people have stopped panicking and are starting to think again. This article should help people realize that the crash in Korea is not the end of the world for Qualcomm.
14 hours to 1998 and a REALLY good year for cdmaOne.
Maurice |
