Quick note on bios. We have had 5 weeks in a row up on XBI. This has happened only 19x in its 10 year life. Near term results are good for this week, up 57% (11 out of 19) with a 2.4% median (0.8% average) return. The positive returns are either very positive or XBI is down (lowest positive is 1.8%). The one downside outlier was the week of 4/18 earlier this year, losing 7%.
Results not so positive for new week though. Streak ends 8 of 11x (`70%). Even if it does not end, positive results just positive. Lots of big negative results.
After today, let's assume we get the 6th week. In the past, for longer term, that implies 55% higher in 8 weeks, average only 5 bps and median 35 bps. Sept 2012 lost 1/8 of its value. Big losses around April in 2007 and 2011 and March last year too. Big gains in Sept 2007, Dec 2014, June 2009, and July 2013. So if overall mkt hangs in, likely positive as shown by the coming out of downturn returns. If not, boom.
IBB had 4 in a row. It is up this week 20/27x, just under 75%. Returns are 70 bps (average and median) for this week and 2% moving forward 8 weeks. Interesting, throwing out the worst down 8 weeks (lost 1/6 of value in 2/18/14) does nothing as there is an equal opposite return in March 2013. That mini crash in 2014 btw is what set up the off the chart ASCO performance that year. History repeating this year?
BTW IBB is up 65% of the time next week, but only 55% of the time over 8 weeks from next week. Returns are 65 bps for 1 week and 1.5% over 8.
Jon |
