Mike Allen newsletter.
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Good Thursday morning. DUMP TRUMP? Playbook stipulates this is highly unlikely to happen. But it's no longer unthinkable that establishment Republicans turn on Trump pre-convention, and seriously ponder a movement to deny him the nomination. Listen to Scott Walker in Wisconsin or Mitch McConnell in the Senate or friends of peeved Speaker Ryan in private, and it's clear Trump could be one intolerant or toxic statement away from a true revolt.
Many top Republicans believe his bad habits and divisive views are incurable. He can barely make it through a day without pissing off key voting groups, or the media, or Republicans.
BEN GINSBERG, world expert on Republican rules, cautioned Playbook: "I think the notion of 2,274 members of the party elite (which they are by virtue of being convention delegates) throwing out the will of 25 million Republican voters and the rules of 56 states and territories by unbinding the delegates so the elites themselves can chose a nominee is fanciful in any year, but especially in a cycle where the grassroots has sent such a strong message to the elites."
BUT THE CHATTER is rising ...
--"Some Republicans Discuss Anti-Trump Convention Coup," by NBC's Vaughn Hillyard: "After nearly a week long fire storm surrounding ... his attacks on a federal judge because of his Mexican heritage, ... some Republicans are raising the specter that a new nominee could replace Trump. Bob Vander Plaats, a supporter and campaign co-chair of former candidate Sen. Ted Cruz, suggested that a convention coup at next month's Republican nominating convention in Cleveland is possible." nbcnews.to
--"Hugh Hewitt: GOP should change convention rules to stop Trump," by Nick Gass: Hewitt said on his influential morning radio program: "They ought to get together and let the convention decide. And if Donald Trump pulls over a makeover in the next four to five weeks, great, they can keep him. It would be better if he had done so 5 weeks ago."
Accepting Trump at this point, Hewitt said, is "like ignoring Stage IV cancer. You can't do it, you gotta go attack it. ... [T]he plane is headed towards the mountain after the last 72 hours." politi.co
--"Trump support shrinking on Capitol Hill," by Burgess Everett and Seung Min Kim: "As Donald Trump's attacks on a Hispanic judge settled over Capitol Hill like a dark cloud on Tuesday, Sen. Jeff Sessions dialed up Trump's campaign to relay mounting alarm among elected Republicans ... non-apology walkback failed to placate many elected Republicans ...
"The anti-Trump movement is now growing rather than shrinking: At least eight GOP senators either won't vote for Trump or have declined to back him publicly." politi.co
--"Never-Trump Republicans Start To Make Last-Ditch Plans For Cleveland," by BuzzFeed's Rosie Gray: "Some are arguing this wouldn't even require a rules change." bzfd.it
--JON WARD on Yahoo, "Talk grows of replacing Trump at GOP convention": "One of the central players inside the movement to recruit an independent conservative candidate ... said ... an anti-Trump group was 'actively recruiting and setting a convention strategy.'" yhoo.it
SO ... What are the mechanics of how a Trump revolt COULD happen? A GOP guru who'll be very involved in the convention tells Playbook:
"The Trump forces DO need to be concerned about a move that respects the primary rules of the 56 states and territories, yet makes his path to the nomination steeper. It's doubtful that the political will to do this exists, but the Rules require each convention to pass the specific rules that govern its proceedings. Those rules have historically included Rules 40(d) and (e) stating how many votes a candidate needs to receive the nomination. The standard has always been a 'majority of the delegates' eligible to vote. When it looked like no candidate would receive a majority of delegates, Donald Trump said a candidate with a 'plurality' of votes should be the nominee. He could have achieved this by amending Rules 40(d) and (e).
"BUT, by the same token, 'majority' can be amended to '60% (or 66.6%) of the delegates on the first ballot and a majority of delegates on any subsequent ballots' to receive the nomination. The decisions by the individual states to bind their delegates for a certain number of ballots would remain intact. It would take political will (desperation?) not yet seen and should be put in the 'highly unlikely' category. Passing that change would require a majority of the Rules Committee members and a majority of the Convention delegates to approve the change and implement it for the roll call." |
